This video of around 27 minutes gave me a great insight about how we would be living in the future and what type of design would shape it.
The video talk offers two central concepts, which are the emergence of 'distributed energy' and 'distributed information'.
This two when coupled forms a new emerging social pattern. That means that we are slowly and steadly drifting towards a new state.
How is that?
So long large electricity companies held the monopoly over energy. They produced it and then distributed it to thousands and millions of people. So we had a small group of producers and a large base of consumers. And consumers paid for their consumption whatever the producers demanded from time to time.
Similarly, schools, universities, publishers, newspapers, television companies and large organizations produced information and then distributed it to the public for consumption. The schools, universities and other organizations that held exclusive rights to the information decided on how such information would be distributed, when it would be distributed, how would it be distributed and how would people pay for consumption of such privilaged information.
All this is about to change. Changes are taking place in the way we are now creating and distributing information. Now individuals create information and share them with others who return the favor through their own contribution to the general pool of available information resources for the consumption of others. It is needless to mention that internet and social media brought about such dramatic changes in our modern lives. And it is has worked wonders. It has virtually wiped out all traditional newspapers in the US and elsewhere. We no longer look up an Encyclopedia for information. We click on Wikipedia for information. And most of the information is free, easily available and mostly accurate. I have virtually stopped visiting my favorite library for quite some time. I get what I want to know on the net. And if needed, buy books through online portals just with the same effort and ease I take to book my air, train and movie tickets.
Post offices are no longer important source of distribution of information. We exchange information at the click of a button and email them all over the world in seconds. We are slowly making landline phones redundant. Mobile phones are now being used more for data usage & transfer rather than as a phone devices. We can now do all that talking for free through Skype and other similar platforms.
The power of individual leadership is now unleashed. One can choose whom to follow, whom to have a discussion with, whom to turn to for advice in case of need and whose articles are worth the wait, time and effort. In short we can choose our teachers and choose what to learn. We are no longer dependent on old archaic structures that try to shove down our throats information which we care least about.
The power to do something now rests on the consumer not the producer.
If we choose to look carefully the same thing is happening in the energy sector. Centralized energy production and distribution are giving way to consumer driven energy production and distribution. First in the line were the industries. They went off the grid to have their own source of power. And they had a good reason to do that. It costs them lot cheaper than taking power from the grid. They did not stop at that. If they were left with any excess power they wheeled it back into the grid and sold the units they contributed. This further lowered the energy cost of manufacturing. Just to give an idea most were producing and consuming electricity at half the cost. With such an arrangement the consumer now becomes the producer and the consumer at the same time.
Others have been quick to follow. Individual homes are setting up their own power back up sources. At the lower end they store power in batteries and use it during power cuts. At the higher end consumers are producing their own electricity from alternative sources of energy -- wind, sun, tides and wastes. It covers almost the entire requirement.
We see similar changes taking place in the water supply systems. Earlier it was the Government's responsibility to provide its citizens with fresh, clean potable water. In many countries like India the system is broken. The onus or responsibility can no longer be taken care of by Government authorities. Hence people are now having their own water supply systems that provide them with clean potable water. The consumer has taken up the responsibility. And it is no longer centralized.
Where is all this leading to?
We are moving away from centralized systems to decentralized or distributed systems. The inherent contradiction between the producer and the consumer has automatically paved the way for people to assume the role of being both a producer and consumer at the same time. And there is something more. After consuming whatever is needed the excess is shared with other consumers in exchange for things others are willing to contribute and potential consumer are willing to accept.
Now we have a formidable combination of three important emergences, which are a) distributed energy b) distributed information c) contribution economy.
As we combine these three emergent properties new design possibilities open up that would have the potential to change the way we choose to live in the near future.
I would like to draw a potential scenario as follows:
1. Individual houses would give way to high-rise landscaped building complexes almost resembling a 'village' of yesteryears but far better and more complex.
2. Such complexes would produce their own energy from alternative sources -- solar, wind, waste, hydrogen cells, tidal and geothermal depending on the location and the circumstances.
3. And they would produce their own information -- for building or supporting education systems, training and developing others and offer services to others.
4. They would create and maintain their own water sources and harvest whatever is available to make their system self sustaining.
5. They might choose to produce their own food sources and means of entertainment.
6. They would take support of effective alternative health systems that are way cheaper than traditional systems.
7. They would create their own local economies to make their 'villages' sustainable.
8. The occupants would produce and consume their own energy, information, water, food etc and combine them in novel ways to sustain their economies.
9. They would share the excess of what they consume with other neighboring 'villages' and also borrow from them what they need.
10. The possibilities are endless... a whole new world would open up.
The possibility of such new design is emerging. And the advantages of such designs are many, some of which would be the following;
a. Carbon free. It is estimated that 60% of the energy a nation consumes goes in housing and transportation.
b. Sustainable and more natural living under more natural habitats.
c. Save the bother and expenses to commute to work.
d. Moving away from monopolistic economies
e. The common man decides the way they live, produce, consume and work.
f. Act local and think global -- drawing on resources all over the world to meet specific local needs of the economy.
g. Contribution economy -- something quite different to both capitalistic and socialist forms of production and consumption.
h. Other advantages would be evident as we go along.
The best thing such designs offer would be to create self-sustaining societies that would primarily be sustained through social contribution of distributed energy and distributed information and sharing of resources. That is probably the beginning of a viable 'Contribution Economy'. An appropriate term for all these put together might be 'distributed living'.
However it is also evident that all societies would not progress towards this concept of 'distributed living' simultaneously. It definitely depends on the present conditions and the collective consciousness of our existing societies that grossly differ in terms of their social behavior that arises from their individual social context.
The first baby steps towards such design for a new way of distributed living is underway in some European societies (I just shy away from using the word 'nations' since this concept is becoming redundant in the modern context of distributed living). Such baby steps would set the trend for others to follow suit.
This is truly the century that throws up the distinct possibility of architects, designers, engineers, design thinkers, system thinkers and leaders to join hands to create a Brave New World.
It remains to be seen how we grab this upcoming opportunity and go forward to save us from natural extinction as human species towards which we are now headed for.
But I am sure of one thing. We now need more leaders at small group levels than ever before.
This video of around 27 minutes gave me a great insight about how we would be living in the future and what type of design would shape it.
The video talk offers two central concepts, which are the emergence of 'distributed energy' and 'distributed information'.
This two when coupled forms a new emerging social pattern. That means that we are slowly and steadly drifting towards a new state.
How is that?
So long large electricity companies held the monopoly over energy. They produced it and then distributed it to thousands and millions of people. So we had a small group of producers and a large base of consumers. And consumers paid for their consumption whatever the producers demanded from time to time.
Similarly, schools, universities, publishers, newspapers, television companies and large organizations produced information and then distributed it to the public for consumption. The schools, universities and other organizations that held exclusive rights to the information decided on how such information would be distributed, when it would be distributed, how would it be distributed and how would people pay for consumption of such privilaged information.
All this is about to change. Changes are taking place in the way we are now creating and distributing information. Now individuals create information and share them with others who return the favor through their own contribution to the general pool of available information resources for the consumption of others. It is needless to mention that internet and social media brought about such dramatic changes in our modern lives. And it is has worked wonders. It has virtually wiped out all traditional newspapers in the US and elsewhere. We no longer look up an Encyclopedia for information. We click on Wikipedia for information. And most of the information is free, easily available and mostly accurate. I have virtually stopped visiting my favorite library for quite some time. I get what I want to know on the net. And if needed, buy books through online portals just with the same effort and ease I take to book my air, train and movie tickets.
Post offices are no longer important source of distribution of information. We exchange information at the click of a button and email them all over the world in seconds. We are slowly making landline phones redundant. Mobile phones are now being used more for data usage & transfer rather than as a phone devices. We can now do all that talking for free through Skype and other similar platforms.
The power of individual leadership is now unleashed. One can choose whom to follow, whom to have a discussion with, whom to turn to for advice in case of need and whose articles are worth the wait, time and effort. In short we can choose our teachers and choose what to learn. We are no longer dependent on old archaic structures that try to shove down our throats information which we care least about.
The power to do something now rests on the consumer not the producer.
If we choose to look carefully the same thing is happening in the energy sector. Centralized energy production and distribution are giving way to consumer driven energy production and distribution. First in the line were the industries. They went off the grid to have their own source of power. And they had a good reason to do that. It costs them lot cheaper than taking power from the grid. They did not stop at that. If they were left with any excess power they wheeled it back into the grid and sold the units they contributed. This further lowered the energy cost of manufacturing. Just to give an idea most were producing and consuming electricity at half the cost. With such an arrangement the consumer now becomes the producer and the consumer at the same time.
Others have been quick to follow. Individual homes are setting up their own power back up sources. At the lower end they store power in batteries and use it during power cuts. At the higher end consumers are producing their own electricity from alternative sources of energy -- wind, sun, tides and wastes. It covers almost the entire requirement.
We see similar changes taking place in the water supply systems. Earlier it was the Government's responsibility to provide its citizens with fresh, clean potable water. In many countries like India the system is broken. The onus or responsibility can no longer be taken care of by Government authorities. Hence people are now having their own water supply systems that provide them with clean potable water. The consumer has taken up the responsibility. And it is no longer centralized.
Where is all this leading to?
We are moving away from centralized systems to decentralized or distributed systems. The inherent contradiction between the producer and the consumer has automatically paved the way for people to assume the role of being both a producer and consumer at the same time. And there is something more. After consuming whatever is needed the excess is shared with other consumers in exchange for things others are willing to contribute and potential consumer are willing to accept.
Now we have a formidable combination of three important emergences, which are a) distributed energy b) distributed information c) contribution economy.
As we combine these three emergent properties new design possibilities open up that would have the potential to change the way we choose to live in the near future.
I would like to draw a potential scenario as follows:
1. Individual houses would give way to high-rise landscaped building complexes almost resembling a 'village' of yesteryears but far better and more complex.
2. Such complexes would produce their own energy from alternative sources -- solar, wind, waste, hydrogen cells, tidal and geothermal depending on the location and the circumstances.
3. And they would produce their own information -- for building or supporting education systems, training and developing others and offer services to others.
4. They would create and maintain their own water sources and harvest whatever is available to make their system self sustaining.
5. They might choose to produce their own food sources and means of entertainment.
6. They would take support of effective alternative health systems that are way cheaper than traditional systems.
7. They would create their own local economies to make their 'villages' sustainable.
8. The occupants would produce and consume their own energy, information, water, food etc and combine them in novel ways to sustain their economies.
9. They would share the excess of what they consume with other neighboring 'villages' and also borrow from them what they need.
10. The possibilities are endless... a whole new world would open up.
The possibility of such new design is emerging. And the advantages of such designs are many, some of which would be the following;
a. Carbon free. It is estimated that 60% of the energy a nation consumes goes in housing and transportation.
b. Sustainable and more natural living under more natural habitats.
c. Save the bother and expenses to commute to work.
d. Moving away from monopolistic economies
e. The common man decides the way they live, produce, consume and work.
f. Act local and think global -- drawing on resources all over the world to meet specific local needs of the economy.
g. Contribution economy -- something quite different to both capitalistic and socialist forms of production and consumption.
h. Other advantages would be evident as we go along.
The best thing such designs offer would be to create self-sustaining societies that would primarily be sustained through social contribution of distributed energy and distributed information and sharing of resources. That is probably the beginning of a viable 'Contribution Economy'. An appropriate term for all these put together might be 'distributed living'.
However it is also evident that all societies would not progress towards this concept of 'distributed living' simultaneously. It definitely depends on the present conditions and the collective consciousness of our existing societies that grossly differ in terms of their social behavior that arises from their individual social context.
The first baby steps towards such design for a new way of distributed living is underway in some European societies (I just shy away from using the word 'nations' since this concept is becoming redundant in the modern context of distributed living). Such baby steps would set the trend for others to follow suit.
This is truly the century that throws up the distinct possibility of architects, designers, engineers, design thinkers, system thinkers and leaders to join hands to create a Brave New World.
It remains to be seen how we grab this upcoming opportunity and go forward to save us from natural extinction as human species towards which we are now headed for.
But I am sure of one thing. We now need more leaders at small group levels than ever before.
Owens is a world leader in glass. It had ambitious plans in India. So it set up a few modern plants across India to produce glass bottles.
Its operation was ‘world-class’. They did everything by the book. No mistakes. But soon Owens lost out to its local rival Hindustan National Glass (HNG), a privately held Indian firm. And in a few years it was forced to sell its entire Indian business outfit except one plant to its rivals. Why?
The issue was inventory of finished goods. Owens went by the copy book style of having the minimum possible inventory, producing just what is needed as much as is needed at any specific point of time – all decided by their excellent management tools. But HNG held obscene levels of finished goods inventory, which other called – ‘insanely absurd’.
Theory informs that holding such insane levels of stock means death of the company. While Owens believed this, HNG didn’t. But in the end HNG won the race.
HNG understood that their customers simply did not have a way of predicting and knowing how many bottles they might need and when they would need them. But there were certain times of the year when demand shot through the roof and stayed high for a few days.
HNG capitalized on this phenomenon. When such booms came HNG was ready with the necessary stock while Owens simply could not figure out a way to deliver the huge requirement in such a short time.
Naturally customers preferred HNG to Owens and even paid the premium HNG demanded during such crisis periods. And they kept making obscene amounts of profits year on year.
Acquiring the Owens outfits made HNG still stronger and almost monopolistic in the market.
Morale: Ship as much as possible and as quickly as possible when customers demand.
Are we collaborating with the customer to create wealth for both?
Nature furnishes a wealth of examples of the nature of 'relationships' that leads to chaos, complexities, emergence, uncertainty and transformations -- embraced by the Rapidinnovation model.
In this post we would discuss one of the fundamental laws that relates two fundamental terms quantitiy and quality. We observe in Nature that quantity changes the quality of an emergence. Even a small quantity can produce a dramatic effect on the output quality or create a dramatic emergent pattern. This would give innovators a clue as to what we might we use to create new relations, new systems, new products or simply solve nagging social and business problems.
For instance, let us examine the relation between the different kinds of electromagnetic waves and their frequencies, that is, the speed with which they pulsate or vibrate at a given energy level.
Maxwell’s work showed that electromagnetic waves and light waves were of the same kind. However, at a later date, Quantum mechanics proved that the situation is much more complex and contradictory, but at lower frequencies, the wave theory holds good.
It is interesting to note that the properties of different waves is determined by the 'number of oscillations per second' or Hertz (the technical term used in the study of vibration).
The difference squarely lies is in the frequency of the waves, the speed with which they pulsate or the frequency of vibration. Hence it is quite clear that the property (or quality) of the waves changes (an emergent property) when the frequency (or quantity) changes. This change of property implies a change of behavior too. That is to say, quantitative changes give rise to different kinds of signals that differ in quality.
Translated into colours, red light indicates light waves of low frequency. An increased frequency of vibration turns the colour to orange-yellow, then to violet, then to the invisible ultra-violet and X-rays and finally to gamma rays. If we reverse the process, at the lower end, we go from infrared and heat rays to radio-waves. Thus, the same phenomenon manifests itself differently, completely depending on the frequency of vibration (higher to lower frequency). And this is determined by the quanity of energy we add or substract.
Interesting to note that as we move up the frequency ladder the emergent behavior changes from 'fields' to 'waves' and then to 'particles'. This is an important insight, the significance of which we would understand in a moment.
Thus Quantity changes into Quality.
Refer the Electromagnetic Table below.
The Electromagnetic Spectrum
Frequency in Hertz
Name
Rough behavior
102
Electrical disturbance
Field
5 X 105-106
Radio Broadcast
108
FM-TV
Waves
1010
Radar
5 X 1014-1015
Light
1018
X-rays
1021
y-rays, nuclear
Particle
1024
y-rays, "artificial"
1027
y-rays, in cosmic rays
Source: R. P. Feynman, Lectures on Physics, chapter 2, p. 7, Table 2-1.
The Innovators' Field Day.
Application of this law to both engineering and mangement can make any innovator or problem solver very happy.
This is because, as innovators or problem solvers we may cleverly use this law to innovate.For example, the microwave oven is based on this principle. Or invention of infra-red ports, mouses and thermal imaging are based on this principle. Similarly, NASA effectively uses cosmic rays to cure and heal astronauts orbitting the space for months. Likewise we can also understand as to how the use of CFL (compact flurorescent lamp) can affect our health. Or for example, we also notice how low frequency electromagetic radiation affects our hearts and anti-friction bearings in machines alike (fields).
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Similarly, when we apply the principle in management systems we can also effectively use the concepts of fields, waves and particles all differeing in energy content, where all changes in management systems are composed of low frequency slow cycles -- fields -- the culture, ethics, vision and strategy of the company and faster cycles of change (medium to high frequencies) which are in the form of waves (general improvement initiatives for a short duration of time) and particles (focussed improvements). It is fair to admit that both low, medium and high frequency cycles co-exist, just as it does in Nature.
It would not be therefore surprizing to see Design and Systems Thinkers use this prinicple to effectively bring about social changes in fields like health, education and sustainable living.
And it would also not be difficult to envisage how designers might use this principle to design effective machines and systems (energy, transportations etc) to reduce global energy consumption and global warming.
And architects can also bring about dramatic changes by using the same prinicple of Quanity to Quality to bring about unique relationships between human beings and their dwellings and their energy consumption and their activities and of course their pets.
They are all important for the brave new world that lies before us begging our intelligent thinking and action.
We can ignite the necessary spark of an welding electrode in two ways:
a) Scratch and lift -- go along for a short time and let go b) Touch and lift - just touch for a fraction of a second and let go We do the same thing while developing people. For some, we would have to go along with them for sometime and then let go. For others, one interaction would be enough to create the spark to a fire that keeps burning for life. However, creating that vital spark is important. With traditional education we neither 'scratch and lift' nor 'touch and lift'. We go drumming year after year till the person would have had enough of it and is bored to death. That is why after some years we remember only a few teachers and professors who have made an impact in our lives. The majority goes into oblivion. Undeniably, the traditional approach has its use in the initial years of making of a person. The mistake is that we extend the thought and the process right into the professional period of a person's life. People don't like it. More than 80% of the people I meet want to quit their jobs even in this time of recession. Why? They simply feel that they are no longer learning anything new or exciting in their jobs to keep their vital spirit alive. At the end of the day they go home with a heavy heart and an empty mind. It sucks; killing the spirit to be curious, to be innovative, to discover, to search for mentors, to take responsibility to be awake and learn and fend for life. However, Learning through Social media is quite different. It can ignite the fire in the belly in both ways - 'scratch' and 'touch'. Since it is more dependent on what we search and want in life. We take what we need and not what is thrust upon us. It gives us time to reflect and create meaning. It creates a democratic, egalitarian and perhaps more prosperous societies. Therefore, it is important to ignite the spark that keeps the fire burning for life. So, it does not surprise me a bit as to why fire is so respected and revered amongst all civilizations across the globe. It occupies a special place in our lives. That is the energy when harnessed helps us to achieve anything worthwhile and lasting and build better societies. Social Media is the right means to achieve the end.
Like most people in Rajasthan, Hiralal Maheswari also holds the “lota” up in the air, tilts his head a little and drinks water without putting the utensil in his mouth. The hot, dry wind flowing across the Thar Desert in the middle of the Indian summer makes Hiralal uncomfortable. But he still carried on. He was instructing the group of middlemen in his business of hand embroidery. These middlemen also known as “Thekedars” are usually responsible for smooth running of the business. Hiralal’s business turnover was a little over 32 crores rupee.
He was seven years old when he came with his father to India from Umarkot (Pakistan). His father, Brijlal Maheswari acted as a “guide” for the Indian Forces in the India - Pakistan war in 1971. They along with other Hindu refugeescrossed the border and settled in Gadra Road. The small hamlet of Gadra Road in Barmer district of Rajasthan is located almost on the Indo-Pak border. It has a population of nearly 1000 and consists mainly of migrant Hindus. Gadra Road is roughly 92 Kms from district headquarters, Barmer.
After Hiralal’s secondary examination Brijlal egged his eldest son to join the embroidery business he started in 1971. Hiralal joined the business otherwise he had to leave his home for higher studies in either Jodhpur or Jaipur. Hand embroidery became a livelihood provider for the Hindu migrants who otherwise had nothing worthwhile to do except for the three and half months of agriculture which also depended on scanty rainfall. Traditionally confined to their respective households and communities, embroidered products of remote rural Rajasthan found places in the international market.
This hand embroidery cluster has its genesis in the migration of Hindu refugees to Rajasthan, India during the 1971 India-Pakistan War. The amalgamation of the necessity of refugees to eke a living, of foreigners to take advantage of the exotic and ethnic tradition, and the entrepreneurship of the trading community, gave birth to this sector. Today, with an annual turnover of approximately 130-150 cores rupees, it provides livelihood opportunities to roughly 60,000 women in rural western Rajasthan.
The sector is controlled by around 180-200 manufacturing units concentrated around the Barmer district wherein 70-75 percent of the sector’s production takes place at Gadra Road, Dhanau, Binjiasar, Chohtan, and Barmer city are some of the prominent clusters around which the sector is organized. Chohtan, another bordering hamletis the biggest centre and have 50 percent of the production units concentrated there, followed by Barmer which harbors 23 percent of such units. These manufacturing units are a misnomer in fact, as the entire production of the sector is highly decentralized and takes place in individual households in remote hamlets and villages. In terms of size, micro firms whose annual turnover is less than 10 lakh rupees dominate the production landscape with 53 percent of firms belonging to this category. However they contribute only 8 percent of the volume of the sector. On the other hand 7-10 large firms, which account for only 4 percent of the total firms, capture 51 percent of the market share.
Caste based kinships networks are the most powerful governors of the sub-sector. 70 percent of the manufacturers belong to Maheswari community while 20 percent to the Jain community, both are trading communities according to the traditional caste hierarchy. Thekedars (Agents/ middlemen) are from other communities such as Meghwals, Rajputs, Brahmins, and Baniyas. Woman embroiders especially belonging to a lower caste Meghwals community are the best in this trade.
Hiralal’s younger brother lives in Jaipur and looks after their export division. All handicrafts and embroidery items are sent to the European market especially to Germany. Hiralal still lives in that remote desert hamlet where electricity is only available for 12 -15 hours in a day. He still attends the evening “aarti” in the local Ram temple. He still mixes with the government officials and often sits for a drink after he closes his “embroidery manufacturing unit” after dusk. He still roams in a 4 x 4 jeep among the sandy terrain. He still watches soft pornography films. He still hasn’t prepared himself for a passport. He still gets intoxicated during Holi. He still has his benevolent nature.But he has admitted his two sons and daughter in an English medium school in Jaipur.
I think Design Innovation matters in everything we do as human beings. In fact, Design Innovation Rules the World!
It is the fundamental tool we have to create competitive impacts, improve the performance of companies, create wealth, create jobs and improve the society as a whole.
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