Monday, September 27, 2010

NANO, NANO ----NOT TO BE SEEN AT ALL

 

Its 09.45 Hrs. A young chap hardly out of his teens, dressed in Tata Motors T- shirt comes up with a folding, easily dismantled kiosk and waits patiently in front of the main door of State Bank of India (SBI), Belghoria Branch. The collapsible gates are closed as banking hours will start from 10.00 Hrs. There is a crowd of people mostly elderly people raring to go inside. He talks something to the security guard in a hurried tone which I could hardly hear. The security guard nods and let him go inside. I also tried to shove my way through the crowd to go inside. The security stops me and barks --- “WAIT”, its 09.50 Hrs, and the bank will start functioning from 10.00Hrs. I thought there is no use of arguing with the security; let me wait for another 10 minutes.

 

Its 10.00 Hrs. We were let in. There is a mad scramble to go inside and go to the nearest teller counter. Every one wants to be the FIRST in the queue. I ended up standing behind five people. Meanwhile the young chap from Tata Motors had set up the kiosk, fixed up the banner of Nano car, stacked up all the pamphlets and hand bills of the Nano car. The Tata motors in an understanding with the SBI are ready to give a soft loan to sell the “people’s car called Nano costing one lakh rupees.” The banner says it all. “You pay only an EMI of Rs 1833/- and get the dream car”.

 

The young chap is ready behind the kiosk. He arranges for a molded red plastic chair. Helps himself a bottle of water from the “Aquaguard Cooler”. He gives a hawk eyed look at the customers standing in front of the teller counters probably to interact with the first potential customer of the day. More people come trooping in inside the bank --- young executives, pensioners, housewives, children, not so young ladies with their husbands, college goers and businessmen, almost every one.

 

Meanwhile my position in the queue became 3rd. I was happy to calculate in my mind that it will take another 10 minutes as the lady at the counter usually disposes of each customer within five minutes. The young chap still waits. No one ever bothered to come up to him and ask him about the people’s car and the formalities needed for a “soft loan”.

 

My turn at the counter came. I got the receipt and started walking back towards the main door. Suddenly it dawned on me to check how many people really come to the Nano kiosk to look up the details. I quietly place myself comfortably at the row of benches placed opposite the kiosk and observe without showing him that he is being observed.

 

10.45 Hrs. Not a single potential buyer came to the kiosk. None bothered to gather the pamphlets/ leaflets which we all Indians are used to. The curiosity wasn’t there. Slowly frustrations were showing in his face. With nothing to do now he starts fiddling with his cell phone, trying to make some imaginary calls like most of us do to ward off undue stares from strangers.  Its now almost 21/2 hrs the bank had opened. No one has shown the eagerness to buy the “people’s car””. With all the free campaign done by the political parties and the media hype before the birth of Nano why people are not coming to buy their “very own affordable car’’?

 

I stretched my legs as I was also feeling uneasy. The question was hammering inside me. Why this state of affairs with the poor Nano when car sales are up in India as the present quarter of the year states. Then I remember some advertisement in the newspaper. A realtor gave an offer that if you buy our flat we will give a Nano car free. Then there was another offer which was by a furniture maker which runs like this” buy our bedroom package and get a Nano car free”. Last heard, that no one was buying their products. I also remember Prof B Saha of the famous Indian Institute of Management, Kolkata (IIM) predicting in 2008 that soon Indian roads would be overflowing with Nanos and we would all be overwhelmed by jams and congestions. City planners and administrators would be facing a tough time redesigning things. Nothing of that happened.

 

What happened? What went terribly wrong? Why Nano car is dying in its infancy? Remember the Maruti 800 from the Suzuki stables. It sold like hot cakes. Every one wanted to have a piece of it and they still want to have it. It doesn’t matter that the company had stopped Maruti 800 production.  Why there is an aversion to this cheap people’s car when people are ready to buy bikes costing Rs. 80,000/-? Is it bad design? Is it the looks? Does it feel unsafe? Well something is terribly wrong Mr. Ratan Tata! There are many reasons which Mr. Tata will not be able to see with his opaque vision.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

  1. Business Strategy is not number crunching. Things that matter are not measurable.
  2. Making things cheap does not always attract customers, especially cars
  3. Design Matters!! Proportions matter!! These attract.
  4. Reliability matters!!  
  5. We can’t predict anything in the long term.

 

Motto:

 

Cheap, Beautiful and Reliable stand a better chance. A compromise in any aspect spoils the chances of success. It is still a chance because nothing can be predicted in the long term.

 

This blog post has been contributed by my colleague Mr. Sitendu De. Grateful.

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Saturday, September 18, 2010

Fish & Rice - A Fishy Twist in the Tale

To a Bengali like me nothing in the world is more delicious than a plate of fish and rice. We just love it. The variety is simply endless and the different ways this delicacy may be cooked and presented are simply mindbloggling. Well, you can never feel the excitement unless you start enjoying this delicacy.

But do fishes have any deeper connections with rice than the obvious connection on the dining table?

I did not realize this connection till I was traveling down a state highway last week to visit one of my clients in the state of Chattisgarh, which lies in the eastern part of India. The land was undulating but had patches of lush green paddy fields here and there. Elsewhere, though the recent monsoon has left its bright green cover it wasn't fertile to grow paddy.

Why was that? Isn't it a waste of land? Why such vast tracts of land don't bear paddy that might have helped some of the farmers grow in that region?

I was curious to find out an answer to this vexing problem of livlihood. So I started looking for some patterns in what I saw. Soon a pattern emerged from what I observed. Quite close to the few paddy fields there were ponds both big and small.

"So, is there a relationship between the ponds and the paddy fields?" I asked my knowledgeable co-passenger, Shri Vishnoo Dubey, General Manager, Technical Services, Grasim Cement, who was traveling along in the same car.

He replied excitedly, 'Yes, there is a deep connection between the ponds and the paddy fields. I heard about this from my friend - a well known scientist who studies ecology.'

The mystery deepened. I was dying to know the truth. 

He then revealed a fascinating secret of Nature. During heavy monsoon, which signals the beginning of the paddy season (since paddy needs standing stagnant water to grow), the ponds overflow and the fishes, who are by that time ready and eager to mate literally jump out of the pond and enter the nearby paddy fields as soon as the ponds and the nearby paddy fields are connected. They then mate with fishes from other ponds and spawn eggs in the shallow, calm and relatively undisturbed water. Soon thousands of baby fishes are born. They feed on the mosquito larvae and other small pests that also hatch in the stagnant water. The bigger fishes feed on the baby fishes. Mother fishes try to protect their babies from harm. A great drama is enacted. It is intensely engaging. Some survive, some are eaten and many die in the process. This goes on for a few months and then after three to four months a few sharp showers follow. This signals the fishes to go back the ponds. The late Sept/early October showers create the passage between the paddy fields and the ponds and the fishes gladly swim back to the comforts of the deeper waters till the next monsoon when this big drama would be repeated. The paddy does not need the stagnant water any more. The water is released and the paddy grows to display its beauty swaying in natural melody in the gentle autumn breeze. Soon the paddy is cropped and it is a time for celebration marked by the two great celebrations of India -- the Durga Puja and Deepavali.

I sat stunned in awe and shock as he completed the story! I marveled and contemplated about the beauty of natural systems  -- the beauty of movement, birth, renewal and development not cancerous exponential growth we are so used to in our industrial unsustainable societies. 

But what was the connection/relationships between this big drama of the fishes and the fertility of the paddy fields? There are many which are as follows:

1. The fish waste and the masses of dead fish actually fertilize the land through 'nitrogen fixing' while the baby fishes grow in relative safety and cool shade of the growing paddy. This rejuvenates the land, makes it sustainable year after year and help the unhindered growth of the paddy.
2. The presence of fish in the paddy water changes the PH of the water and makes it most suitable for growing paddy (rice). It decides the taste and the neutrient value of rice.
3. The fish eat on the parasites and fungus that would have otherwise spoiled the crop. They also save human beings by controlling the population of the deadly mosquitoes by eating on the larvae. And much more.
4. It also controls the size of the fishes when they go back to the ponds. How is that? Scientists tell us that when males of any species increase their reproductive effort with unfamiliar mates -- a phenomenon known as the 'Coolidge effect' takes place. So, when male fishes regularly try to mate with new females throughout their lives, they spend less time looking for food and more time pursuing females. This increases the chance of the baby fishes to grow without being attacked by too many predators. The scientists further tell us that males living with unfamiliar females also grow more slowly and to a smaller adult size and tended to die sooner. In contrast, males living with a single partner ate regularly, grew steadily and lived longer. Well the promiscuity of fishes helps in a critical way. The ponds can't accommodate too many large fishes and the resources can't sustain them for long. The balance between resources and the fish population is automatically maintained by males fishes running after many female fishes to mate -- perfect sustainable solution. I could now relate as to how 'Helen of Troy', 'Cleopetra', 'Draupadi' and other beauty queens of human history helped to contain and prune human population at regular intervals. That is quite a sustainable solution! Though told in jest, exponential population growth can't make any society sustainable. 

Lessons Learned:

1. Sustainable systems are cooperative and not competitive. We see here how the fishes, paddy and the Mother Earth cooperate with each other to create a sustainable solution for years. Why don't we get into networked cooperative systems rather than trying to do it all alone by leveraging financial powers only and competing fiercely? My understanding is that the old industrial age systems would soon be dismantled to give birth to an age of Creative networked cooperative economies. And what a difference in power it would make. The power of one to many or many to many network is 2 to the power n whereas the power of no network is just 1.
2. To go against natural cycles and living only means unnatural and unsustainable living -- living without a purpose and damaging life. For example, teenagers are usually active in the night and their brains wake up usually by noon. But we keep forcing them to attend schools early in the morning when their brains are practically asleep in an effort to discipline them. We don't care about how much they actually learn. We just want them to be on time every time -- a legacy of the industrial age -- get rid of the body clock and conform to the mechanical clock of false discipline of time in everything we do even if it is without results.
3. The cycle of birth, death, renewal must be accepted as the most natural process for the sustainable society. After the 2008 economic crash or depression, the Obama administration thought that the giant relics of the industrial age can't be allowed to die. So they thought it to be a good idea to inject millions of tax dollars into these ailing firms as aid so that the few jobs these corporations sustained could be saved. But what happened? The firms were saved but job situation did not improve. It is actually grew worse. Public dollars were wasted in vain. Their death might have generated unexpected emergence of other economic possibilities that might have actually improved the situation. But societies with industrial mindsets can't accept surprises and death and therefore continue to do the wrong things in the right way. Without death there can't be any renewal. Soon Japan would be struggling with the heavy burden of an old and ailing population that would drain the resources to develop the potential of the younger generation.
4. Balance between the prey and the predator is a key to a sustainable economy -- it limits size and turnover. The tragedy is that we constantly try to live in very simple predictable environments rather than learning to adapt to complex environments full of uncertainty and possibilities. To do that we go after predators (sometimes assumed) and try to wipe them off. Wrong. It is never the 'survival of the fittest' as we have had been forced to believe. It is always the 'elimination of the weakest'. In nature, the predator like a lion is not bothered whether it preys upon the best buffalo or the next best buffalo. Any buffalo would be good enough for dinner. Usually lions would attack the weakest and perhaps the oldest buffalo in the herd -- elimination of the weakest. Because that is not only easy but also systemic for the overall development and sustainability of the delicate ecology. But as human beings we are always aiming at the best and probably the costliest. We try to measure and evaluate people, companies and things and try to go for the best. What an irony! Such decisions would destroy us for good and it would happen soon if we don't choose to change course.
5. Growth vs Development. Nature is not much concerned about growth. Because growth is always exponential, which means the resources to sustain would soon run out in no time. It therefore, looks at ways and means to contain the size and turnover. Not too many fishes in the same pond. Not too many big fishes in the same pond. So, it finds ingenious ways to achieve the delicate balance. When would as humans learn this trick from nature and act consciously?
6. Sustainable solutions emerge naturally in a local setting that is most suitable to that locale. 'One size fits all' and 'global solutions' would never work. Imagine using fertilizers in place of fishes. Would it have done the same tricks nature achieves? It won't. The local interdependence is to be carefully understood to boost development. Supposedly 'global solutions' or 'best practices' that have worked well elsewhere ironically does not work 'everywhere'. 
7. Productivity is always limited by resource capability and can't be boosted by artificial means. Productivity for the sake of productivity is downright meaningless. It can only grow as per the available resource capability of a place. It depends on the collective consciousness and wisdom of the people involved. And it is an organic process that grows at its own pace over time. Artificially trying to achieve productivity benchmarks, achieved elsewhere, by any means within a record time is simply not sustainable. We falsely believe that productivity is based on machines and technology. It is true to some extent but that is not the full story. It is also based to a greater extent on the capability of human beings to interface with the technology. And building collective consciousness, capability and wisdom does not happen overnight. Hence without continuous training and eduction in systemic understanding no industry can ever think of improving its coffers.
8. Restoration and adaptation rate are vital ingredients to success. Imagine a person who does not sleep and works all day long. He/she would soon become a lunatic and unfit for society. Restoration is closely linked to adaptation rate. If the rate of change goes past the rate of adaptation a system is capable of, it would soon be broken (lunatic) and would cease to be sustainable any further -- just like a person who goes without sleep for days.

Are leaders, marketers, trainers and educators and all those who influence our societies in one way or the other listening to Mother Nature?

The art work of the fish was done by my 6 year old nephew, Rishi. I thank him for his networked contribution.

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Wednesday, September 1, 2010

The 'AND' is in the 'NOW'.

This is a story of two competing cement plants operating with similar state of art technology to produce high grade cement catering to similar but highly competitive markets. 


However, the quality of cement that is produced is highly dependent on the quality of limestone mined from a limestone quarry.


In this respect the limestone deposit of Cement Plant A was considered to be inferior as compared to the limestone mine of Cement Plant B. Therefore, Plant B was supposed to produce better quality cement. These two mines and their plants were separated by about 200 kms and people thought that this is what determined the difference in the quality of the limestone in the respective quarries. 


The comparison of quality was based on the usual analysis of Ferrous content, Silicate, Aluminate and Carbonate as is usually done in laboratories of cement plants around the world. And in all respect the quality of limestone of Plant B, determined in this fashion was vastly superior to that of Plant A.


But there was a surprise!

 

The quality and strength of cement produced by Plant A was much superior to that of Plant B. This went against conventional wisdom and immensely puzzled the cement technologists of Plant B forcing them to wonder as to how this might be possible.


But this 'surprise' emergence made the management of Plant A much happier since they could now sell their product at a premium to happy customers who brought in more customers through word of mouth. Soon their customer base and their reach exceeded that of Plant B. Within a few years they could create their unique brand identity in the market. Their cement, which looked more blackish in color, was called as 'black rock' by admiring customers and civil engineers.


The seemingly inferior quality of Plant A's limestone mines did not seem to matter at all. And happy times for them continued and they expanded their operations.    

 

Many years later, while researching more in depth, the researchers found that the limestone deposit of the so called inferior mines (Plant A) had a trace amount of boron while the limestone deposits of Plant B had no boron content. Instead, it contained trace amount of barium. So they understood that while boron gave the cement (of Plant A) superior strength; barium made the bonds weaker (of Plant B) though all other constituent of limestone mines of Plant A were really inferior to that of Plant B. That relationship alone explained the difference in quality of cement produced by the two plants.

 

Lessons:


1. The relationship between the parts causes the system properties to emerge. 

2. The emergence is always in the form of a pattern. And it defines the purpose of the system. It might be desirable or undesirable and it need not follow our definition of an intended purpose. 

3. Relationships are more important than the parts. And relationships form the essence that produces the emergence. 

4. One strong relationship can overshadow other weaker relationships and the emergence can come up as a winner.

5. Another way to describe such relationship that forms the essence is by the word 'AND'.

6. 'AND' a small change in the relationship causes dramatic changes in the output or emergence.

7. Therefore the root cause (or the essence) of an emergence always lies in the NOW (as relationships evolve). A cause can't lie in the past or be lost or hidden from our senses and understanding. So, we need not look beyond or look into the past to explain what happens now in form of an emergence. It is easy to find a root cause provided one searches intently for the AND in the NOW. We need not go any further.


Summary:


1. The AND is in the NOW. 'AND' is the essence and the cause of the emergence.

2. System Thinkers must be aware of it to understand the cause of system behavior. 3. Design Thinkers must take care of it to create dramatic competitive advantage.

4. The concept also serves the issue of Sustainability in a great way. 

5. Strategy, Decision Making & Improvement plans are to evolve on emergence.

 

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